I’m taking inspiration from Scott Galloway’s predictions and putting some of my own down on paper. Scott and his firm, L2, focus on consumer brands. My experience lies in software, energy, logistics and packaging. My predictions are mostly related to those areas.
Please note that these views are my own and do not reflect those of my employer or any other company with which I may have a working relationship or be affiliated.
Amazon will surpass either UPS or FedEx or both
In at least one month in the coming year Amazon will surpass one of the two largest incumbents in the number of packages delivered (likely July around Prime Day or December).
Tesla gets down in the weeds
Tesla will fire a shot across the bow of either the yard equipment or marine outboard motor segment before the end of the year. The company will leverage its edge in battery technology to enter a new industry – one that is far less complicated than auto manufacturing or space exploration, but nevertheless very profitable. It was telling that Tesla unveiled an ATV at the company’s pickup truck launch. This was the biggest overlooked news of the day.
A major retail chain will introduce reusable containers
Walmart, Target, or the like will debut dispensers for liquid soaps and detergent. Consumers will purchase a reusable container that they will bring back to the store. It will start with cleaning products and eventually expand to food products (think coffee) too. Why bother? It will bolster their image (sustainability) and give them an opportunity to promote their store brands that garner higher margins.
You will pay for plastic bags
While it’s common in some parts of Europe, paying for plastic bags here in the US is rare (Lidl and Aldi charge for bags, but I think this is company policy). That will change. Some municipalities have adopted bans against the bags. However, others will let market forces do what they do best. When Scotland introduced the additional charge, usage dropped by 80% in the first year. Update: Denver will start charging in July 2020.
Chopsticks will replace plastic ware for food delivery
Food delivery continues to grow and so does the problem of what to do with its byproducts. Some companies will start offering utensils only by request (like drive thrus did with ketchup), others will transition to chopsticks as their default (even if its not Asian cuisine). Update: I’ve learned the default in NYC is no utensils.
Amazon will buy a convenience store or dollar store chain
Amazon is easing into this space with its own cashierless stores, but I think a dramatic move a-la-Whole-Foods-acquisition is just as likely as a home grown approach. Dollar General, 7 Eleven, etc. fit the bill. I wrote about this in 2017.
Energy will become more mobile
More automotive fuels will be delivered on demand. Companies that are active in this space are Booster Fuels, Yoshi, Filld and a few others. Battery stations are also becoming mobile. At least one company I know of, FreeWire, is solely focused on mobile battery units. Permanent stations will continue to be built, but more mobile units will debut to meet surge demands and respond to disaster response scenarios as well as provide convenience to consumers.
Uber and Lyft will sell their software
WordPress brought blogging to the masses. Shopify made Ecommerce obtainable for startups. For everyone that ever dreamed up an “Uber for insert idea here“, there is a need for the software that supports that business model. Routing, queues, payments and dynamic pricing are not easy problems to solve for the average company. This has Uber and Lyft written all over it. As each focuses on profitability, they will look for alternative sources of revenue.
LinkedIn will become relevant for non-job seekers
Let’s face it, if you’re not looking for a job there’s not much LinkedIn brings to the table. Sure, you can keep up with contacts and read updates posted by your connections. But I find the majority of it to be recycled content that can more easily and effectively be gleaned from other sources. Things are getting better, albeit slowly. I really like the DAILY RUNDOWN notification and the “Today’s news and views” section. If these features were built out a bit more, I could see myself defaulting to this platform to skim headlines.
LinkedIn – if you are reading this, reach out to me and I’ll give you a list of things you can do to make your product better, starting with restoring the prominence of Groups which was what brought me to the platform in the first place.
Gmail will compose multi-line emails
I’m already using Gmail’s suggestions to respond to some emails with quick one-liners. 2020 will be the year that Gmail takes it to the next level and offers multiple-sentence responses, effectively composing emails for its users.